We don’t mean to brag, but we think we’ve got
’em right this time. After going 7 for 10 and then 8 for 10
in our Oscar picks of the past two years, we’re predicting
this is the year we nail everything. Call it a gut feeling. Or
clairvoyance. Of course, to drag out William Goldman’s
infamous quote about Hollywood one more time, “Nobody knows
anything.” And for all anyone knows, “Crash”
could pull a “Shakespeare in Love” in the Best Picture
category, Felicity Huffman could steal Best Actress (and Best Actor
too, why not?), Matt Dillon could take Supporting Actor, and yes,
even the penguin documentary could go down.
But if you ask us, we just don’t see it happening.
Best Picture Will win: “Brokeback
Mountain” Should win: “Brokeback Mountain” The
old saying still holds true: They don’t make ’em like
they used to. But in the case of “Brokeback Mountain,”
this may be a good thing. From its conception, Ang Lee’s 10th
feature film stirred controversy by challenging a bread-and-butter
staple of the American motion picture ““ the hyper-masculine
image of the all-American cowboy. That, along with on-point acting,
a terrific score and breathtaking cinematography, makes
“Brokeback Mountain” the best put-together film of the
five nominees. The other pictures on the slate represent American
film’s increasing attention to social and political concerns,
but “Brokeback Mountain” best captures its subject
matter on a human level, and that’s why it’s winning
Best Picture.
Best Adapted Screenplay Will win:
“Brokeback Mountain” Should win: “A History of
Violence” With “The Godfather,”
“Fargo” and “Pulp Fiction” among past
winners, the screenplay categories hardly lack a history of
bloodstains and explicit murders. This year, John Olson’s
“A History of Violence,” based on the graphic novel by
Vince Locke and John Wagner, is the most creative, darkly witty and
well-structured screenplay on the ballot ““ a brilliant blend
of disturbing crime thriller, emotional family drama and social
commentary. However, while the title seems to fit the category, the
award will go to the heart-tugging story of two Wyoming cowboys.
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana’s adaptation of E. Annie
Proulx’s short story “Brokeback Mountain” is
clean-cut and seamlessly spans two decades ““ perfect Oscar
material.
Best Director Will win: Ang Lee,
“Brokeback Mountain” Should win: Ang Lee,
“Brokeback Mountain” Ang Lee has it made. Why? Because
he coaxed an astonishing performance out of the guy from “A
Knight’s Tale”? Because he got to see Anne Hathaway and
Michelle Williams topless? No and no ““ Lee has it made
because he’s up against four nominees who are either
significantly weaker or have no chance of winning.
“Capote” is gaining attention more for Philip Seymour
Hoffman’s performance than for Bennett Miller’s
direction. Steven Spielberg won’t win because
“Munich” is the anti-“Schindler’s
List” in every way ““ too divisive to honor. Paul
Haggis’ after-school special on racism has the subtlety of a
15-car pile-up, and though “Crash” could play spoiler,
the academy will consider a screenplay award enough. Clooney, Lee
aside, is the most deserving for “Good Night, and Good
Luck.,” though typically when actor-directors win they are
for traditional Hollywood films. While Lee may win by default, he
still made one of the most affecting films of the year with
“Brokeback Mountain.”
Best Actor Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman,
“Capote” Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman,
“Capote” Out of all the categories, the nominee list
for Best Actor might be the most impressive, with all five actors
turning in stellar performances. It is perhaps even more
impressive, then, that Philip Seymour Hoffman is such a heavy
favorite to win. The academy loves actors who gain or lose weight
for a role (Charlize Theron in “Monster,” George
Clooney in “Syriana”) or master a real-life
character’s voice and actions (Jamie Foxx in
“Ray”). While Hoffman did lose weight and mastered
Truman Capote’s positively Cartman-esque voice to a T, he
accomplishes more than that: He becomes Capote. With his win, the
academy will finally recognize an actor who has delivered memorable
performances in “Magnolia,” “Almost Famous”
and “Happiness.”
Best Supporting Actor Will win: George Clooney,
“Syriana” Should win: Paul Giamatti, “Cinderella
Man” With the Golden Globe already resting on his mantle,
George Clooney is the frontrunner in the closest race among the
major categories. It’s been a huge year for Clooney, who has
two other nominations: Best Original Screenplay and Best Director
for “Good Night, and Good Luck.” Clooney’s
expected first trip to the Oscar podium for his exceptional work in
“Syriana” will have to serve as compensation for his
likely losses in the other two categories. But if anyone should be
compensated, it’s Paul Giamatti, who nailed trainer Joe Gould
in “Cinderella Man” and was slighted by the academy of
a Best Actor nomination last year for “Sideways.” If
only “Cinderella Man” had had a stronger reception,
Giamatti would be the frontrunner. One can’t fault audiences,
however, for being turned off when studios desperately offer
moviegoers the option of a refund if they don’t like the
movie.
Best Actress Will win: Reese Witherspoon,
“Walk the Line” Should win: Anyone but Charlize Theron
The Academy seems to be having trouble differentiating between the
makeup and acting categories. As June Carter in “Walk the
Line,” Reese Witherspoon was funny, had attitude and was the
brightest thing on screen, but she’ll have to overcome her
lack of buckteeth, a fake nose, 30 extra pounds or any of the other
Oscar bait that five out of the last six winners have used. On the
other hand, Charlize Theron’s dirt-smeared face, plastered on
every bus and billboard for “North Country,” has gained
the academy’s notice once more. And while we doubt Theron
will win again so soon for ugly-ing up, it did work for Hilary
Swank. Witherspoon’s main competition is actually Felicity
Huffman, who plays a man becoming a woman, and the academy has
fallen for gender switching before (ahem, Swank again). We love
Theron, but it’s time the academy honor a woman who makes
acting look good.
Best Documentary Feature Will win: “March
of the Penguins” Should win: “Grizzly Man” (not
nominated) Were it not for the gay cowboys, 2005 might have been
remembered as the year the United States fell in love with a
glorified National Geographic documentary about flightless birds.
In fact, “March of the Penguins” earned more at the box
office than any Best Picture nominee, and it doesn’t even
have people in it (excluding Morgan Freeman’s ever-reliable
voice-of-God narration). “March of the Penguins” finds
a story humans can relate to on a continent inhabited only by wild
animals and tells it through stunning on-location photography.
However, the film also doesn’t cover much new territory,
especially in comparison to a work like “Grizzly Man.”
Werner Herzog’s documentary focuses on one man’s fatal
and harrowing obsession with the deadly carnivores of its title,
shooting down the kind of cuddly, anthropomorphic approach to the
natural world that “March of the Penguins” cashed in
on. Unfortunately, “Grizzly Man” was robbed of a
nomination, falling victim to the academy’s process of
selection by a secretive Oscar committee.
Best Foreign Language Film Will win:
“Tsotsi” Should win: “Tsotsi” 2005 was a
great year for foreign films released in the U.S., though one
wouldn’t know it by looking at their shrinking box-office
numbers ““ and especially not by looking at this list of
nominees. The academy’s arcane system ““ each country
may only submit one film, and strict rules govern the rest of the
process ““ has led to uninspired middlebrow fare such as
“The Sea Inside” and “The Barbarian
Invasions” winning the category outright in recent years,
while more daring and far-superior films from “Bad
Education” to “Y tu mamá también” have
been denied nominations altogether. The trend has continued:
Snubbed foreign language films “2046,”
“Caché,” “The World,” “Tropical
Malady” and “Kings and Queen” were some of the
very best films released last year and are all stronger than
“Tsotsi,” an excellent film in its own right and the
favorite to win here, with its closest competition reduced to the
Palestinian film “Paradise Now.”
Best Original Screenplay Will win:
“Crash” Should win: “The Squid and the
Whale” Oscar wins are often a result of marketing and hype,
but that hasn’t stopped smaller films from all but thriving
in the Best Original Screenplay category (the last four winners:
“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” “Lost in
Translation,” “Talk to Her” and “Gosford
Park”). The problem with Noah Baumbach’s “The
Squid and the Whale,” the most deserving of the nominated
screenplays, is that it might be too small. The film details the
trauma of a divorce in the lives of a couple and their two sons,
and the honesty with which Baumbach portrays these characters
““ especially the character of Walt, based on himself ““
is so emotionally complicated and truthful as to make it one of the
most enjoyable and refreshing films of the year. However,
“Crash” is a shoe-in for this category, as it is just
too popular within the industry to lose.
Best Supporting Actress Will win: Rachel Weisz,
“The Constant Gardener” Should win: Amy Adams,
“Junebug” Though Frances McDormand is a revered
character actress, the favorite for the Best Supporting Actress
Oscar is Rachel Weisz, who cleaned up at the Golden Globes and SAG
awards. Weisz certainly deserves the award as she is a very
talented actress, but the little-seen “Junebug”
showcased one of the most impressive performances of the year by
Amy Adams. Adams’ character ““ the natural,
heart-rending Ashley ““ is figured prominently in the film as
a young, pregnant Southerner with puppy-dog tendencies toward her
brother-in-law’s wife. However, Weisz will likely be favored
over relative newcomer Adams simply because of all of her
awards-season momentum.
All text written and compiled by Alfred Lee, Mark Humphrey,
Amy Crocker, Devon Dickau, Julianne Fylstra, Ana Heller, Nick
Rudman and Kate Stanhope.