Neither of the two main Democratic party primary candidates for
governor gained a substantial lead as of Tuesday night, and one
will face Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ““ who may already have a
leg up in the race.
As the governor of California during a period of economic
growth, some say Schwarzenegger may have an advantage over his
rival ““ regardless of whether Steve Westly or Phil Angelides
is elected as his opponent.
Incumbents have had a historic advantage when running for
re-election while the economy is faring well, said Steven Frates, a
senior fellow at Claremont McKenna College’s Rose Institute
of State and Local Government.
“There are more jobs, more people working and more people
happier with personal prospects. … This generates more tax
revenue, which provides more money to spread around and do things
that people might want to do,” he said.
“Those three things work to a certain extent to
Schwarzenegger’s advantage,” he added.
But some observers point to dark spots in the state budget
Schwarzenegger and his supporters have been describing in an
optimistic light.
Though the budget is in better shape than it has been in the
past few years, it is still in a deficit, and that is not something
that will be fixed on its own, said Daniel Mitchell, professor at
the UCLA Anderson School of Management and the School of Public
Affairs.
“It is a structural problem in California. … You
ultimately have to get more revenue on an ongoing basis, or you
have to cut back expenditures if you’re not willing to raise
taxes. None of the candidates have been willing to look at
that,” he said.
When either candidate goes against Schwarzenegger in November,
another factor that could work against him is the negative nature
of much of the Democratic candidates’ campaigning so far.
Angelides and Westly used attacks against each other during
their campaigns, which some analysts have said may affect their
chances of winning against Schwarzenegger by steering eligible
voters away from the polls.
“They’ll have had a bunch of questions raised about
their probity and ethics,” said Shaun Bowler, a political
science professor at UC Riverside. “Right now, the only
person who’s going to win from this election is
Arnold.”
The most important thing gubernatorial candidates will have to
prove is if they can generate the money to pay for the services and
infrastructure necessary for California, said Michael Dukakis,
former presidential candidate and a visiting professor in the UCLA
School of Public Affairs.
“If there’s one single challenge that faces
California right now, it’s deciding whether or not (the
state) wants to pay for the kinds of things that are essential to
its future,” he said.
He cited the state deficit, an influx of students that will
flood the state college system, and overcrowded classrooms as
issues that merit attention.
And though analysts said the difference between Westly’s
and Angelides’ policies was small, which led many voters to
remain undecided until election day, Dukakis said a key difference
between the candidates is their tax policies ““ or how they
will pay for what California needs.
Much debate over how to best address California’s economic
state has centered on tax policies. While Schwarzenegger has
attributed the recent rise in revenue to his tax cuts, Angelides
said he plans to fund his programs by raising taxes.
“Angelides is apparently much more aggressive about tax
increases, whereas Schwarzenegger is on the other side of that
equation. … Westly is probably between Angelides and
Schwarzenegger,” he said.
Angelides has proposed balancing the state budget while
increasing spending for education by raising taxes of the wealthy
bracket of Californians.
“When I’m governor, I’ll fully fund our
schools, roll back the Schwarzenegger tuition hikes, expand
financial aid, and open the doors to college wider than ever … by
closing corporate tax loopholes and asking multimillionaires to pay
their fair share again,” Angelides said in an April 5 speech
addressing Democratic leaders in Sacramento.
But Frates said a tax increase would stunt economic growth in
California, which he said is not necessarily good public
policy.
“As taxes go up, people have less money to spend and to
invest in business,” he said. Investment in small business is
particularly important in California as “most economic growth
is driven by small businesses and that is where the most jobs are
created and the most people are hired,” he said.
Mitchell said Westly has “been quiet on a lot of these
issues though has said (raising taxes) is a last resort. He has put
himself in between the two candidates” regarding tax
policies.
Westly’s proposals for raising state revenue include
cracking down on tax cheats and reorganizing the government to run
more efficiently.