While the programs’ respective histories wouldn’t suggest it, No. 11 seed UCLA men’s basketball (19-9, 13-6 Pac-12) needed an upset victory to advance past No. 6 seed BYU on Saturday. No. 14 seed Abilene Christian (24-4, 13-2 Southland) was the far bigger underdog in its matchup with No. 3 seed Texas, but it too pulled off a shocking win on Saturday – its first NCAA tournament victory in program history.
With a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line, here’s a look at how the Bruins match up with the Wildcats via Daily Bruin senior staffer Sam Connon.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
BPI Ranking: 75
NET Ranking: 74
KenPom Ranking: 81
Record: 24-4 overall, 13-2 Southland, 13-0 Home, 5-4 Away, 6-0 Neutral
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 102.5 points per 100 possessions, 165th in D1
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 91.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, 23rd in D1
Adjusted Tempo: 69.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 112th in D1
Key Player: Center Kolton Kohl
X-Factor: Guard Reggie Miller
The Wildcats are known for one thing and one thing only.
Defense.
More specifically, forcing turnovers, but that’s just one part of their all-out, lethal attack on that side of the ball.
There’s a pretty solid argument to be made for Abilene Christian owning the best defense in the country. After all, it boasts the best unadjusted defensive rating in the country, ranks third in the nation in steals per game and forces the most turnovers in Division I with 20.4 per game.
Most of that can be attributed to the Wildcats’ award-winning backcourt. Coach Joe Golding rolls out a three-guard lineup to start games, with 5-foot-7 Damien Daniels, 6-foot Coryon Mason and 6-foot Reggie Miller making up the undersized unit.
The Bruins have the clear size advantage here – even with 5-foot-11 redshirt sophomore guard Tyger Campbell – but the quickness and tenacity of their opponents will likely wipe that out. Daniels, Mason and Miller are all speedy and have a great nose for the ball, with the trio making up three-fifths of the Southland All-Defensive Team this season.
Mason leads the group of guards with 10.7 points per game while shooting 51.6% inside the arc and 37.7% on 3-pointers. Offense isn’t the name of the game for Abilene Christian, however, as both Miller and Daniels average fewer than seven points per game.
The duo average a combined four steals per game and helped their team force turnovers on 27% of their opponents’ possessions, the best in the country. Miller, who shares a name with a certain UCLA Athletics Hall of Famer, only had one steal against Texas on Saturday but has recorded three or more in nine games this season.
And in addition to an all-out defensive mentality and a trio of ball-hawking guards, the Wildcats also have a 7-foot anchor in center Kolton Kohl. The big man only plays 18.9 minutes per game, but he leads his team with 12 points and one block per game on the year.
The defensive numbers are daunting for the Bruins, especially considering how late turnovers cost them multiple close games down the stretch. It isn’t all doom and gloom for UCLA, however, since it is the higher seed and played the far more difficult schedule all year long – Abilene Christian boasts the No. 300 strength of schedule compared to the Bruins’ No. 35 slate.
Abilene Christian’s defensive rating balloons from an NCAA-best 83.3 to a 24th-ranked 91.4 when adjusted for opponents by KenPom. This is still nothing to sneeze at, but notable considering it takes into account the fact that Abilene Christian played Lamar three times and Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Incarnate Word and Houston Baptist twice each.
The Wildcats proved their defensive stats could translate to bigger stages by forcing 22 turnovers against the Longhorns on Saturday, but they lost their only two other games against NCAA tournament competition this season. Texas Tech beat Abilene Christian 51-44 with 16 turnovers – a possible map to success for UCLA on Monday – while Arkansas won by a much more comfortable 13 points with only 13 turnovers.
Campbell, junior guard Jules Bernard and junior guard David Singleton shouldn’t be relied on to dribble out of the Wildcats’ suffocating press. Instead, it’s all going to be about making smart, crisp passes to advance the ball and settling into a more stable offense in the half court.
Abilene Christian can shoot the ball from deep at the other end of the court, jacking up 22.3 attempts per game and hitting them at a respectable 34.8% clip. UCLA held a usual 3-point heavy BYU squad to 3-of-17 shooting from long range on Saturday, so there’s no reason to think it can’t do the same against a statistically inferior offense.
All things considered, it’s a very simple path to victory for the Bruins – don’t turn the ball over. The Wildcats are a perfect 17-0 when they force more than 16 turnovers and 7-4 when they don’t.
Obviously, turnovers are a given against a defense this aggressive. UCLA just has to minimize them and stay under 18 or so turnovers in order to give its offense enough chances to get off quality shots and attack the basket.
Ball security and another career night from one of its go-to scorers should do the trick, but that could be easier said than done.
